Will Mozilla Firefox have a ten percent usage share by the end of 2005?Total Votes So Far: 38060
10% easy target We should summarize percent of all Gecko-based browsers, not only FF. Regarding this, 10% by 2005/12 is very pessimistic, we are about reaching this by first quarter. 20-30% is a more real challenge. Yep - IMHO 10% should be easy, 15% realistic and 20% is a challenge. As sinchi already mentioned, not just counting FX but all gecko-browsers together. By the way: germany already has 20% gecko-marketshare - and will probably reach 30% or more at the end of 2005 What makes You think that is 20%? Any country wide statistics or just your website stats? Spiegel Online is one of the biggest mainstream news-portals of germany. Whats more important is that its visited by a wide variety of people - not just geeks and techies. Currently, gecko has around 30% usage share on that portal - if we still asume that the average spiegel-reader is more educated - and compare the stats of other german non-geek pages - then i would say that 20% is a conservative estimation - it may be even more. Of course as always it varies from site to site...... but i would say that its quite safe to say that average gecko-marketshare is around 20% in germany. Webhits.de might give a more accurate estimation for Firefox' market share in Germany. It provides web site stats for some ten thousands of very different sites. Here are their diagrams of accumulated stats. <http://www.webhits.de/deu…index.shtml?webstats.html> Right now Firefox is at 9.5% and all versions of IE together are well below 80% :-) There is a flaw in % arguements in enviroments that are non-tangle such as the internet. There is no realistic way to know if 10% of all people surfing the net ARE using Firefox. The only definte answer is "Firefox has X% on this site during this term. % shares for any browser are always relative. Regardless I think 10% is achieveable. :-) since i start using firefox mozilla i never received any virus ,for me microsoft attract virus like shit to a blanket I voted 'no' just to be contrary, but actually I think the answer is that it depends on your site. On my personal site (which isn't browser-related or anything), Gecko has 20% already so no problems there. But on the sites I do for work, which may be more representative of 'general' users, Gecko only has 5% of (uniquely identified) users. It's entirely possible that Gecko might reach 10% of those users by end 2005, but it's also possible that it won't. The other part of my answer is that I don't believe any of the 'counter' stats (OneStat, WebSideStory, etc.) which are often sourced as references. I don't believe those are credible surveys and their biases may be significant despite the large sample sizes. Credible information, if based on site stats, would come from sites with the widest possible range of usage - Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Ebay. It might even be better to survey random households (obviously this would provide only per-country results). Are reports available (paid, I would assume) with this kind of data? --sam Following the same reasoning, I voted "yes". There are so many unreliable statistics to choose from, it shouldn't be hard to find a statistic to show that Firefox usage has hit 10%... don't they mean by the end of 2004 ? Have you seen the latest stats and how they have developed? According to the data that leak here and there, I think Europe has already more than 10% of firefox users. Everyone has been very influential in getting this to happen. Posting links on personal sites and advertising this site best viewed with Firefox. My site has both the firefox and Thunderbird links and am very happy to promote the best browser on the Planet. I would much rather see an under-ambitious target than an over ambitious target. Can you imagine seeing headlines a years time saying "mozilla fails to hit 20% marketshare target" across all the news sites ... it is not a good advert compared to "mozilla reclaims 25% marketshare, reigniting the browser-wars". It's a lot more of an achievement, marketing wise, and leaves no failures to be accounted for or explained away. I voted "no." The survey asked if Firefox would have a 10% usage share by the end of 2005. By the end of 2005, the actual percentage will most likely be either under 10% or over 10%. It's less likely that it will be precisely 10%. [This is what happens when you spend too much time writing computer programs. ;-) ] Maybe the question needs some brackets to indicate precedence, but I'd take "by the end of 2005" to mean "at a time equal to or earlier than the end of 2005", so if it's over 10% at the end of 2005, then it'll have been 10% at some point before then. This is only true if the function that relates percentage over time is continous. #46 Fuzzy interpretation of = makes it look continuousby tepples <tepples@spamcop.net> Saturday February 5th, 2005 1:40 PM When comparing percentages in practice, a fellow often takes = to signify an approximate comparison (x = 10% iff 10% ≤ x < 11%). Approximate comparisons tend to make slightly discontinuous trends look more continuous, as the probability of Gecko's share rising from 9.99% to 11.00% instantaneously is effectively nil. #47 damn lack of html AND unicodeby tepples <tepples@spamcop.net> Saturday February 5th, 2005 1:42 PM Not only does MozillaZine talkback lack HTML, but it also appears to lack all Unicode code points at or above U+0100. That numeric entity was supposed to be a less than or equal to sign. #55 Re: Re: Surveys should be worded carefullyby jonadab <jonadab@bright.net> Monday February 28th, 2005 11:09 AM You are assuming that the number of people in the world who browse the web is always a multiple of ten, which of course is preposterous. Actually, I think the real problem with web stats like this is that 20% of the people do 80% of the browsing, and it's utterly impossible to tell which people are which. 'A 10 percent usage share' involves the existence of at least one ten percent share out of the 10 ten percents. Therefore 10% and any percent above that satisfy the statement, 9.99999% and below do not. ;-) It also involves that the instance when the browser has 10% usage share (whatever it is) any time before or at the end of 2005, it satisfies the statment. Therefore even if the usage share is only 9.8% at the end of 2005, but has been at or above 10% any time before the end of 2005, the statement is true. ;-) I agree, this is not a luckily phrased statment. #24 Re: Surveys should be worded carefullyby AlexBishop <alex@mozillazine.org> Wednesday December 29th, 2004 4:49 PM Stop being so pedantic! Honestly, I lose the will to do this sometimes. Alex If you want to do a survey of people's views about probabilities and statistics of certain things happening, then you have to be pedantic. On the other hand, if you want to have a fun web poll which you can't draw any serious conclusion from, then you don't have to be pedantic. Obviously the MozillaZine polls are only ever going to be of this type. You could add one of those little disclaimer notes like many news sites have - maybe making the point yourself that it's not scientific or representative of anything much would discourage all us pedants pointing it out each time. Or maybe that'd happen anyway... is that like "will the coin land on it's edge?" maybe we need a development process for surveys and only release it in the wild to be used once we have hit v1.0. Can we have an area of bugzilla dedicated to reporting survey bugs ? What the heck is 'usage share', pray thee. It's the most commonly reported browser statistic. If you have a total of 1000 web server requests in your data, and out of those hits 100 come from browser A, then browser A has a 10% usage share. Of course, if your data is not a random sample of Internet traffic, if anyone sends out a spoofed user agent string, or if any of the browsers used cahced any data, that means your statistics don't really reflect the actual usage of browsers on the web. According to Check Upsdell, "Caution: statistics can mislead. Caching distorts raw data; each site attracts different audiences, with different demographics; each survey uses different methodologies; many surveys mis-identify certain browsers; short reporting periods and small sample sizes exaggerate fluctuations; and stats don't count those who stay away because their browsers are not supported." I read in an Austrian online news site (in German) that Firefox has great success in Europe. This is the link to the page (written in German): <http://derstandard.at/?id=1901195> It says: In German the Gecko Engine based browsers have about 13 percent market share. See more details: <http://www.webhits.de/eng…ml?/deutsch/webstats.html> (also partly in German) In France, Firefox alone has 9,91 percent. See more details: <http://www.webrankinfo.co…ites/200412-barometre.htm> (in French) In the Czech Republic over 11 percent of all used Browsers are based on the Gecko Engine. See more details: <http://www.czilla.cz/arti…s-cz-2004-11-english.html> Therefore, the Mozilla goal (10 precent) could be reached in many countries in Europe by end of this year -> the next success story for Firefox happens !! Gecko browsers (Firefox, Mozilla, Netscape, ...) = 30% by the end of 2005. That's what the real exciting challenge should be. I ordered and paid for a Firefox T-shirt from the mozilla web site on October 11th 2004 and still have not received it. When I email their customer service they don't reply. These people are thieves and liars. #25 Re: I voted no becauseby AlexBishop <alex@mozillazine.org> Wednesday December 29th, 2004 4:50 PM What was the address you emailed? Alex #26 My site is there already for Mozilla built productby nstanosheck Wednesday December 29th, 2004 7:01 PM So far for December my site has 10% usage for Mozilla products including Camino, Mozilla Suite, Netscape and Firefox. Of course I advertise both Firefox and Thunderbird on every page of <http://www.EUphrosynosCafe.com> So far for December my site has 10% usage for Mozilla products including Camino, Mozilla Suite, Netscape and Firefox. Of course I advertise both Firefox and Thunderbird on every page of <http://www.EuphrosynosCafe.com> #29 My site is seeing 12%-15% for 1.0 alone ...by jabcreations Thursday December 30th, 2004 12:48 PM My site is seeing 12%-15% for 1.0 alone NOT including my own visits. I don't see why we should aim for 20%. I meant to say I don't see why we should NOT aim for 20%. If mozilla doesn't get 20% or more market share by the end of 2005 headlines will say: "Mozilla fails to reach 20% market share goal". If they use an easy target they will say "Mozilla blows past 20% market share goal!!!" Theres soem statistics I saw on w3c schools not long ago that suggest mozilla laready had about a 12% share of the marketplace. #33 Re: What kind of homepage do you have set?by KaiRo <KaiRo@KaiRo.at> Sunday January 2nd, 2005 11:13 AM If the Mozilla App suite gets more than 20% market share, I'd votze for Firefox reaching it's fair 2% as well... 10% for FF?m Too much for me ;-) If Firefox came installed on new PCs from major vendors and bundled with ISP software, then over 10% would not be unrealistic at all. Firefox has received a lot of positive press from both tech and mainstream publications recently, but it seems like the major PC vendors and ISPs still love IE. Have there been any talks with Dell, HP, or others? It's not like they are unwilling to include non-MS software. HP installs RealPlayer and iTunes even though Windows Media Player is already a part of Windows. I know IBM has been a Mozilla supporter, but I haven't seen it shipped on any of their new PCs. It seems that the major block to getting Firefox preloaded onto new PCs is the cost of tech support. Many sites don't work in Firefox, and companies don't want to be handling the calls from users trying to access their favorite sites. Support for document.all was added recently as a step towards making enough sites work. I think the hiring of some full-time tech evangslists is another step in this direction. that, sadly, users, and especially enteprise, is morons. I predict: Nearly 30-40% of Unix/Linux market Nearly 8-15% percent of Mac market. Nearly 30-50% of most other markets Nearly 7-9% of total Windows market Nearly 8-9% of Win pre-xp sp2 market Nearly 10-12% of Win95 market Nearly 9-11% of Win home market. Browser Statistics Month by Month 2005 IE 6 IE 5 O 7 Ffox Moz NN 4 NN 7 January 65.4% 4.5% 2.1% 18.7% 4.1% 0.3% 1.1% See these stats at: <http://www.w3schools.com/…owsers/browsers_stats.asp> Of course, those stats are only for the W3C Schools site. Sites that are technically oriented, especially those that discuss web technologies, have a much higher than average usage of non-IE browsers. Web statistics from OneStat and WebSideStory, which cover a wide variety of sites, suggest that Firefox has a 4-5% share and all Gecko-based browsers combined have a 7-8% share. There's a long way to go before Firefox has a 10% usage share. According to that site's statistics, Mozilla had 21% last December. I voted Yes and I use FireFox (of course :) ). I think it all depends on marketing. If every Firefox user will spread it, FireFox will be given away on CDs with magazines and maybe even some commercials on TV, then it will get 10% easily. BUT FireFox will get 'unsecure' if more users are going to use it, because hackers will target it then. So FireFox should keep getting better with lots of advanced (security) options (And I'm sure it will), but it should also stay simple. I don't know if FF already has this function, but it should dld pages with > 1 connection to the server, and the download manager has to get some more functions (Multi-connection support, Auto-downloading, etc..). With this functions the quality above IE will (I think) be even better. Oh, and the OEM-bundling is a valid point. I myself btw are going to use Portable Firefox on a memstick and use it on every computer with USB. I simply REFUSE working with IE anymore...:) I hope more people will follow. I am small time in the computer world, but not small enough to spread the word on this kick ass browser (in fact all the mozilla apps). I do some tech support for my family and I work in IS professionally, and no matter where I go or what Im doing thats computer related, I'm selling this thing.....why? Because it really is worth it , and when users switch over, they wont go back. If every small time guy like myself is doing this, it wont be long before the 10% is reached. I agree though, however, that you never want to expect too much and over estimate, and then fall short. That's just like Wall Street, if you dont make your stated goal, they hate you. Bad press could erupt into a big problem. One saving grace though is the product works, and no matter how bad the initial fallout would be (God forbid), the user share would continue to rise because the product stands on its own. I CAN SAY I JUST DOWN LOADED FIRE FOX AND I LIKE IT. IT ALMOST PURRED AT ME lol foxes dont purr, they growl and then bite when you least expect it!!! I CAN SAY I JUST DOWN LOADED FIRE FOX AND I LIKE IT. IT ALMOST PURRED AT ME lol Translation of the above post here: <http://ssshotaru.homestea…iles/aolertranslator.html> page hits in the last 6 months: Gecko-based: 192,142 M$IE: 69,405 Opera: 18,002 Search Engines: 26,342 Unknown/other: 1,729 daltongamers.net Wow, that's lots of people. Where is your website by the way? And what type is it? Is it a general news site or what? 99% of the smart people 20% of the idiots If that's not ten percent of the marketshare, then I don't know what is. Those seem pretty much in sight. I'd really like to know when 100% of web clients are 100% fully standars compliant. That is a pipe dream. There will always be 4 people using Netscape Commuticator 4. :p there will always be 1 or two using Mosaic 0.9 However, you can quite easily build a site using CSS layout that looks fantastic and is still usable in NS4, just by hiding the CSS entirely from NS4. My website <http://siriuscoffee.com> has already passed 10%. Firefox 1.x = 13.13% IE = 80.81% See for yourself: <http://www.sitemeter.com/…iriuscoffee&report=13>
#58 Easy to get 10% after dropping the Mozilla Suite !by max_headroom Friday March 18th, 2005 7:15 AM :-( #60 Re: Easy to get 10% after dropping the Mozilla Suite !by schapel Saturday March 19th, 2005 8:10 PM Suite use was dropping even before the announcement that MoFo would not be making a 1.8 release: <http://www.websidestory.c…tainsights/spotlight.html> According to the trends given on that page, total Mozilla browser U.S. usage will hit 10% sometime in June, assuming that the recent linear growth rate can be sustained from February to June. Firefox U.S. usage will hit 10% sometime in September, assuming the growth can be sustained until September. Generally it seems that Mozilla & Firefox usage outside the U.S. is even higher, so Firefox reaching 10% usage in 2005 does seem likely, even if the growth rate slows a bit. We have about 15%(aprox) of firefox users on my church site. <http://www.solidrockministries.us> I logged hits to 13 of the pages on my very eclectic Web site during the second week of April. Mozilla and its clones were at 16% with Firefox alone at 12%. See my <http://www.rossde.com/viewing_site.html>; scroll almost half-way down the page for details. Why? #67 Re: Re:...a ten percent usage share by the end ofby anderskorte Tuesday April 26th, 2005 2:47 AM Oh. I voted yes. It will. I'm just not that much into taking over the web. I think it would hit 20% by the summer. According to browser usage stats at W3Schools <http://www.w3schools.com/…owsers/browsers_stats.asp>, now more than 20% It hardly seems likely that Firefox will gain that much in the next 7 months. Well well well... Hahaha! The vote top of page is currently at 90% people saying YES and 10% says NO! Aint that interesting. I somehow doubt it. I build new PC's and one thing keeps me from installing Firefox on every machine: ITS NOT PERFECT!!! There are too many sites that simply don't work with firefox, yet work perfectly with IE. These include Online Banking sites, and oft-visited Gaming sites. ALSO The Firefox online community and extension pages are BUGGY and look neglected. Really. If anyone wants to push firefox, they've just got to hire 1 person to keep it in check. Why is it not happening? Also, I am sure M$ has an active campaign agains Firefox, and will therefore include stuff in their .net and new applications that Firefox can not do. This must not be allowed to happen. Where are our spies?! Firefox is the coooolest though! I certainly hope it will reach 10%, then 20%, then 30% And it certainly will if it can be made better than IE. As a .NET-developer, I am curious... What can the .NET Framework render, that can't be viewed by Firefox? you say: "...yet work perfectly with IE." Right. And so do many of the remotely exploitable MS-IE vulnerabilities that let viruses/worms/trojans/keyloggers take over your PC. they work perfectly with IE too :) i think it'll be TOO easy. yeah, i think 15% os more of a challenge, 10% is almost right now. But W3Schools does have a highly biased report since it's a web development site and it focuses on standards, which basically promotes firefox. One thing I think we should look at is not just gecko browsers but all alternative browsers, including Opera. As long as IE loses market share the original cause is being furthered. Personally, if anyone asks me I wouldnt give Firefox or Opera a better review, except to say that Firefox is open-source and Opera is shareware. Does anybody actually care? As long as people are using a UA that uses a standards compliant rendering engine and doesn't open massive security holes by integrating with their operating system at a deep level, then it shouldn't matter. Plain and simple. Who gives a flying fuck what browser somebody uses as long as they aren't using something destructive to their system's wellbeing and the wellbeing of the Internet and WWW at large. One problem with people using a UA that's standards compliant is that many web sites written specifically for IE don't work. In order to get web developers to get their sites working in non-IE browsers, there needs to be a certain percentage of users using non-IE browsers. With more users using Firefox than all the other non-IE browsers combined, Firefox use does matter greatly to those wishing to use a standards compliant UA. #82 THE TEENY TINY OUTWARD MOST LIMBby tilebum <tilebum@yahoo.com> Tuesday August 30th, 2005 8:19 AM I'M GOING OUT ON A LIMB(literally later)AND SAY IT WILL GROW BY 52%(the following quote was actually seen on T.V. by me, you don't know me but trust me, I am me, for real. "Thats almost a lie"), "THAT'S ALMOST HALF" <LMFAOFR@THATONESTILLTOTHISDAY.> "THATS ALMOST NOW". HEHEHE. O.K. I'LL STOP! GEESH SMILE ONCE IN AWHILE YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN PRACTICE WHEN YOU WANNA FAKE A JOYFULL RESPONSE TO THE IN-LAWS. TAKE CARE ALL AND KEEP ON A READIN'. AFTER ALL IT IS FINALLY HELPING THE PRESIDENT. THATS ALMOST FUNNY. LATER S............................O.........................R...........................R............................Y............................. . for 6 months now the score for "YES" had maxed out at 32767... any old-school programmers (who speak either binary or hexadecimal) will recognize this familiar number as (2**15)-1, or in other words, the largest 2-byte signed integer value possible, before rolling-over into negative territory. 6 months. does anyone smell a "bug" here... ? Here in Poland we propably have the most interested people in alternative browsers ever. Look: <http://www.ranking.pl/rank.php?stat=browPL> (browsers visiting polish sites from Poland, very accurate). As of 2005-10-10: - MSIE 78.1% - Firefox 13.7% - Opera 6.2% How about Finland <http://www.adtech.info/Ne…mp;node=4¤t=194> In June 2005, IE had 73.24% and Firefox had 20.69% share. There's less than 3mons time, it's a little bit hard for Mozilla. However, we can make the wish. we already made it :) November 2nd, 2005 <http://www.onestat.com/ht…rket_firefox_growing.html> |
|
86% (32767)